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Policy Volatility and the Geopolitical Energy Equation

Policy shock hits the market. Trump reverses Alaska oil ban. Masdar & EWEC launch $6B solar-storage megaproject in UAE. US Cleantech investment rollbacks hit $24B YTD. Focus shifts to grid modernization and EPR for plastics.
October 24, 2025 by
Policy Volatility and the Geopolitical Energy Equation
Ivo Faryna

Executive Summary

The energy market is defined by policy volatility and massive-scale clean energy deployment. The Trump administration's reversal of the Alaska oil ban signals a major boost for US oil supply, while geopolitical risk escalated with a disruptive drone strike on a Russian refinery. In cleantech, a $6 billion continuous power project by Masdar and EWEC in the UAE demonstrates the commercial maturity of solar-plus-storage, even as US clean energy investment rollbacks hit $24 billion year-to-date, signaling significant domestic market uncertainty. Infrastructure and policy are confirmed as key bottlenecks, with a new focus on grid modernization at GE Vernova and a necessary policy shift toward Extended Producer Responsibility in the chemical sector.

Cleantech

Scale and Innovation Define Global Solar and Storage

The future of clean energy moved a step closer to 24/7 reliability as Masdar and EWEC broke ground on a $6 billion solar photovoltaic plant paired with a $19 GWh battery energy storage system (BESS) in the UAE, designed to deliver 1 GW of continuous power. This massive project validates utility-scale, hybrid renewable solutions as a cornerstone of national energy strategy. In North America, the financial viability of domestic solar manufacturing was reaffirmed as First Solar secured tax credit agreements that will boost its liquidity, a direct result of US industrial policy. However, broader US investment sentiment remains fragile; the clean energy advocacy group E2 reported that companies canceled or scaled back nearly $1.6 billion clean energy projects in September, bringing total withdrawn investment this year to over $24 billion.

On the technology front, innovation continues to push boundaries. Researchers have developed a double-layer electrode design that offers significant improvements in the cyclic stability and fast-charging performance of next-generation silicon-based batteries, promising longer range and faster charging for Electric Vehicles (EVs). Meanwhile, the EV charging ecosystem shows contrasting dynamics: while Brazil reports accelerated growth in its EV charging infrastructure by companies like Tupinambá Energia, US convenience store executives indicate that initial EV charging investments are not yet proving profitable due to shifting consumer perceptions and utilization rates.

Read more: Masdar, EWEC Break Ground on $6B Solar Storage Project to Deliver 1 GW of Continuous Clean PowerGE Vernova bullish on electrical infrastructure as turbine backlog grows, How First Solar's $775 Million Tax Credit Deal Could Reshape Liquidity for FSLR Investors, $1.6B in clean energy investments were rolled back in September: E2, Double-layer electrode design powers next-gen silicon-based batteries for faster charging and longer range EVs, Q&A: EV charging growth accelerates in Brazil, Convenience store executives say EV charging investments not paying off

Electricity

Grid Modernization and Coal Phase-Out

Grid resilience and stability are emerging as a prime focus. GE Vernova expressed bullishness on the electrical infrastructure market, citing solid gas turbine order growth and a clear opportunity to diversify into integrated solutions for major customers like data centers. This reinforces the need for smart, robust infrastructure to handle both the increasing demand and the intermittent nature of renewables. Further emphasizing this transition, a new framework was introduced by UC Santa Barbara researchers offering a smarter, data-driven approach to accelerate the retirement of the remaining US coal plants, a necessary step for meeting national climate targets.

In the mid-Atlantic, the PJM Interconnection is poised for new storage deployments following reforms to its surplus interconnection rules. This momentum is supported by projects like the two battery energy storage systems in Virginia, financed by Climate First Bank and completed by Patterson Enterprises, demonstrating how regional policy reforms translate into concrete clean energy assets. Conversely, a new analysis argues that continued gas reliance will worsen the energy affordability crisis due to the rising costs of new gas plant construction, challenging the common narrative that gas offers affordable reliability.

Read more: GE Vernova bullish on electrical infrastructure as turbine backlog grows, Gas reliance will worsen the energy affordability crisis, Framework reveals a smarter and faster way to retire US coal plants, Climate First Bank Finances Two Battery Energy Storage Systems on Virginia’s Eastern Shore

Fuel

Arctic Oil Reversal and LNG Demand Lock-In

The US domestic energy policy landscape saw a dramatic shift as the Trump administration greenlighted Arctic drilling, reversing the Biden administration’s ban and opening the entire coastal plain of Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) to oil and gas leasing. This move is politically significant and could substantially increase future US oil production capacity. Simultaneously, the global demand for Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) solidified as Tokyo Gas signed a major off-take agreement with Glenfarne for the Alaska LNG project. This deal, one of several recent agreements with Asian buyers, underscores the long-term role of US-exported gas in international energy security.

Read more: Trump greenlights Arctic drilling, reversing Biden’s Alaska oil ban, Tokyo Gas signs offtake agreement with Glenfarne, boosting Alaska LNG momentum

Chemicals

Plastic Policy and Hydrogen Transition

The chemical industry faces increasing pressure to fund circularity, highlighted by international efforts advocating for Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) as a central tool to fight plastic pollution. EPR mandates that manufacturers bear a significant portion of the cost and management burden of post-consumer plastic waste, fundamentally changing the economics of plastic production.

In the decarbonization space, Woodside Energy is nearing completion of its Beaumont New Ammonia Project in Texas. Ammonia is a crucial hydrogen carrier and feedstock, demonstrating the industry’s push into new, cleaner production chains necessary for heavy industry and maritime fuel transition.

Read more: International efforts to fight plastic pollution: why the world needs Extended Producer Responsibility, The Hydrogen Stream: Woodside nears completion of Beaumont ammonia project

Policy

Investment Uncertainty and Regulatory Alignment

Policy actions are driving both acceleration and rollback. The $24 billion in withdrawn clean energy investments reported by E2 reflects significant regulatory and permitting bottlenecks, even as US industrial policy benefits domestic manufacturers like First Solar. The debate over gas reliance has moved to the regulatory sphere, challenging utilities’ integrated resource plans. Globally, the push for EPR signifies a major policy tool to transfer the environmental costs of plastic from municipalities to the producers.

Read more: Gas reliance will worsen the energy affordability crisis, $1.6B in clean energy investments were rolled back in September: E2, International efforts to fight plastic pollution: why the world needs Extended Producer Responsibility

Geopolitics

Geopolitical Risk and Energy Security

Geopolitical instability directly impacted oil infrastructure this week as a Ukrainian drone strike forced the halt of a major crude distillation unit at Russia’s fourth-largest refinery. This incident, disrupting approximately $80,000 bpd of capacity, underscores the high-risk environment for energy assets and the subsequent effect on oil product supply. Concurrently, Tokyo Gas’s long-term LNG agreement reinforces Asia’s strategy to diversify supply, ensuring energy security via US projects like Alaska LNG.

Read more: Ukraine Strikes Russia’s Fourth-Largest Refinery, Disrupting 80,000 bpd, Tokyo Gas signs offtake agreement with Glenfarne, boosting Alaska LNG momentum

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Policy Volatility and the Geopolitical Energy Equation
Ivo Faryna October 24, 2025
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